STEM Education: Predictable Futures vs. Incentives and Disruption
Conditions for Innovation and Leading in Workforce Development
The Systems Engineering Research Center (SERC) has undertaken a broad scope of research in Human Capital Development. A subset of this research has focused on the development of STEM talent with projects such as the Capstone Marketplace and developing the next generation defense workforce, Policy Innovations to Enhance the STEM Talent Pipeline, and pathways to synergistic collaborations between the Department of Defense (DoD) and the defense industrial base (DIB).
The motivation and need to develop the STEM talent pipeline is clear. As reported in the congressionally mandated FY20 Industrial Capabilities Report, given current demand, there will be a shortfall of capable workers in the U.S.
There are multiple factors that influence whether a young person develops as a STEM capable student in K-12, pursues a STEM degree in higher education, or follows a career path requiring STEM skills. Foremost among them is the failure to deliver STEM education to K-12 students in underfunded school districts, where students are often not on the college path. There have been significant and successful efforts to prepare this cohort of young students, with exceptional examples of individual success, but with little national agreement on standards or curricula, these efforts are difficult to scale. Methods to engage and develop students with STEM education from K-12 into college have been developed and proven, and yet many capable students do not choose higher education paths or careers in STEM. When considering post-secondary education, return-on-investment analyses usually favor STEM, however, many students think STEM subjects are too hard.
William Rouse, SERC Researcher, Senior Fellow, Office of Sr. Vice President for Research, McCourt School of Public Policy and Co-Principal Investigator on the Policy Innovations to Enhance the STEM Talent Pipeline study, cites the data. “Only 16% of high school graduates in the U.S. are STEM ready,” he said. “They’ve taken the courses they need, algebra one and two, geometry, chemistry, physics, to be a STEM major. Of those that choose to go to college, half of them drop out of the STEM path.”
The landscape of higher education where advanced STEM education is delivered is complex. Colleges and universities offering traditional STEM degree programs, such as an engineering degree with its many sub-specializations, are working hard to diversify their cohort and increase enrollment. Finance programs are retooling their degree requirements to designate them as a STEM degree, and legislation to establish accounting as a STEM profession has been introduced in Congress.
John V. Lombardi, SERC researcher and Professor Emeritus at University of Massachusetts Amherst, argues the incentives to stay in DIB STEM careers are not there for the cohort of students who could choose careers with the DoD. “The pay scale doesn’t keep people employed in high tech jobs in the military, people come in and work a while and then go on to corporations where they’re paid twice as much and have twice as much freedom to move. There are a lot of structures that inhibit the development of this workforce.”
Applying systems sciences to higher education, Rouse developed a computational model for academic enterprises published in his book Universities as Complex Enterprises. Using data from the Center for Measuring University Performance founded by Lombardi, in a paper entitled Modeling research universities: Predicting probable futures of public vs. private and large vs. small research universities, authors Rouse, Lombardi, and Diane D. Craig model large and small, public and private universities to look to at three scenarios: where the status quo is maintained; where graduate student population declines by 5% annually; and where graduate tuition declines to $10,000 due to online offerings.
In the last scenario the authors posit that eventually, “Highly polished, well-done MOOCs (Massive Open Online Courses) will increasingly succeed. Once the credentials associated with success in these online courses are acceptable to employers, it is easy to imagine a massive shift away from traditional classrooms for some categories of students, especially those seeking professional credentials and Master’s degrees where distance learning is already recognized and increasingly common.”
The disruptions to education brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in a massive unenrollment of K-12 students from public schools, a decline in financial stability of student families, and worsened existing conditions such as a declining birth rate that compounds the existing demographic ‘cliff’ of higher education enrollment. Simultaneously, the ‘creative destruction’ brought about by the pandemic has created an accelerated and unavoidable push to adapt to remote learning technologies and deliver/receive education online, despite the discomfort for instructors and students alike.
Nonetheless, there are reasons to be hopeful. Innovative universities, low cost online degrees, and academia/industry partnerships are showing responsiveness to current conditions and producing results. Notably, as will be discussed in the upcoming SERC Talks series Innovating on STEM Readiness, Michael Gargano Jr., Ed.D. will present on the DIB/Connecticut State College and University System collaborations. The hypothesis of the study is that the skilled workforce can be fostered by integrating relationships among K-12, community colleges, business, and industry. “These programs typically yield skilled workers immediately hired by industry with starting salaries in the $50,000-$70,000 range. These workers then become consumers and taxpayers for the next 40 years or so. The returns on these investments are enormous, even when discounted to reflect the time value of returns. Thus, these investments are easy to economically justify.”
Submissions Open for 10th Annual SERC Doctoral Student Forum
Bringing Visibility to Student Systems Engineering Research
The Systems Engineering Research Center (SERC), a University Affiliated Research Center of the US Department of Defense, is now accepting submissions for doctoral students to present at the 10th annual SERC Doctoral Student Forum.
The forum, which will be hosted virtually on Nov. 17 as part of the 14th annual SERC Research Review, unites a national network of researchers and practitioners in all sectors of the systems engineering (SE) research community — government, industry and academia — to discuss SE issues of national and global significance.
SERC is seeking a diverse pool of future leaders in the SE field to showcase their work at the student-focused event. Submissions are open to any student currently enrolled in a doctoral program at a SERC collaborating university, Minority-Serving Institution or Historically Black College or University.
Students conducting innovative SE-related research and exemplifying a passion for addressing the most challenging SE issues facing the Department of Defense and other federal departments and agencies are encouraged to submit.
Submissions will be evaluated and selected based on intellectual merit, clarity of vision and research impact. The students selected to participate in the forum will give a 30-minute presentation of their work. The SERC Doctoral Student Presentation Award will be given in recognition of potential impact, advancement of systems engineering, originality, technical content, as well as clarity of presentation. The award comes with a small monetary prize. All presentations will be virtual and recorded for open distribution.
In 2021, Christopher White, a Ph.D. student at The University of Alabama in Huntsville, took home the SERC Doctoral Student Presentation Award for his SE research on decision-making under uncertainty, measurement error in value-based engineering and cognitive decision processes.
Additionally, the 2021 doctoral forum opened with two SERC research team tutorials. Dr. Mark Blackburn, a SERC Research Council member and Senior Research Scientist at Stevens Institute of Technology, led a tutorial on the NAVAIR Skyzer Surrogate Pilot Model that discussed the development of a “full stack” of models that links to a model-based systems engineering cost model. And Dr. Peter Beling, SERC Research Council member and Professor at Virginia Tech, led a tutorial on using modeling and simulation to support cyber resilience. The tutorial presented two methods that are based on more than six years of SERC research.
The deadline to submit to present at the virtual SERC Doctoral Student Forum is Sept. 30.
DoD/Defense Industry Collaboration in STEM Education and Workforce Development
Defense Missions That Engage and Inspire, Recruit and Retain
Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) provide the foundation for technological achievements that are crucial to U.S. national security, economic growth, and public health and safety. As a step toward understanding how to foster a workforce with strong STEM capabilities and skills, the SERC undertook a two-part study commissioned by the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering (USD(R&E)). The study aims to support development of policy options that promote DoD-Defense Industry collaboration in STEM education and workforce development with multiple goals: moving DoD-Defense Industrial Base (DIB) relationships and activities from ad hoc and incidental collaborations to partnerships that create a technical workforce to meet defense missions; supporting educational opportunities for defense sector personnel in government and industry; and increasing educational opportunities for veterans and military dependents.
The first phase of the study assessed and reviewed DIB STEM-related activities, the DoD STEM website and its summaries of relevant activities, conducted discussions with principals representing a sampling of these programs, and gathered information from external organizations and literature research to identify current best practices, implementation models, and assessment methodologies. While it was found that there exist many excellent STEM outreach activities in both the DoD and DIB organizations, STEM-related collaboration between the DoD and DIB is rare. At present, no operational construct exists—and therefore no or little public recognition or visibility—to motivate development of collaborative partnerships that could yield synergistic impacts. And while the skilled technical workforce (STW) is increasing in importance, current post-secondary interventions by both the DoD and DIB focus largely on College/University programs rather than engaging Community Colleges and Technical Institutes.
“We were extremely impressed by the passion and commitment of individuals across both the DoD and its industrial base – many devoting time as volunteers – to help grow future generations of STEM talent in support of defense missions. But we characterized the landscape as a thousand points of light – each meritorious but failing to deliver synergistic impacts. We believe there is huge potential to increase collective impacts through collaborative efforts between the DoD and its industrial base and hope that our work moves the needle in that direction,” said Ruth David, AIRC Fellow and Co-Principal Investigator on the study.
The study’s report lays the groundwork for a transition to DoD-DIB collaborative partnerships, in an effort to scale up exceptional programs, amplify collective impacts, focus more clearly on high-priority populations, and provide a path to system-level assessments that lets both DoD and the DIB better understand the return on their investments over time. Recommendations include:
- using existing coordination constructs as well as developing new efforts to support DoD-DIB collaboration to mitigate the shared risks stemming from projected shortfalls in the STEM/STW workforce;
- creating an annual awards program to recognize successful DoD-DIB collaborative partnerships and generate incentive for industry participation. Both government and industry personnel should be eligible for recognition of volunteer efforts; and
- engaging more effectively with Community Colleges/Technical Institutes, including providing financial, materiel, and technical support and expanding beyond the current focus on manufacturing/industrial skills, to build the STW needed for defense missions and reach the underserved/underrepresented populations that are a priority for diversification of the STEM talent pool. Additionally, a dedicated scholarship should be established to support reskilling and/or upskilling of veterans.
The study’s second phase undertook deeper dives into related topics with a focus on:
- identifying additional DoD-DIB collaborative opportunities, as well as motivating incentives;
- leveraging existing DoD programs (including DoD educational institutions) when possible;
- exploring external models for STEM-related systemic reform;
- leveraging the virtual environment more effectively;
- identifying additional options for expanding and diversifying the clearable talent pool;
- exploring further the STW needed for defense missions; and
- exploring the STEM-related nonprofit landscape to identify new opportunities to leverage their efforts in creating the clearable technical workforce.
The study expands the vision for how policy can further DoD-DIB collaboration through initiatives that: “engage and inspire” to expand and diversify the available STEM talent pool; “attract to defense missions” at an early age through interventions including role models and mission relevant STEM activities; and “recruit and retain” the requisite STEM-skilled workforce through additional opportunities for personal development including reskilling and upskilling as needed.
Researchers Engage at INCOSE International Symposium 2022
The SERC Shares Research and Knowledge with the SE Community
Since its founding, the SERC has had a collaborative and strategic relationship with the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE). Several SERC researchers hold leadership roles within INCOSE and every year many SERC research projects are featured at the INCOSE International Symposium (IS). IS2022 took place from 25-30 June in Detroit, Michigan, in a hybrid format. Over 500 individuals joined in person with over 400 joining sessions virtually.
June 25-26
The weekend of the IS consisted primarily of tutorials. This year, SERC researcher David Long put together the “Systems Engineering (SE) Fundamentals” track for the IS, and tutorials coordinated on the weekend:
- “Back to Basics: Fundamentals of Systems Engineering Success,” presented by Long (June 25)
- “Back to Basics: Thinking Like a Systems Engineering Practitioner,” by David Walden (June 26)
- “Systems 101: An Introductory Tutorial on Systems Thinking and Systems Engineering,” by Jawahar Bhalla (June 26)
The weekday portion of the IS consisted of the primary technical program:
June 27
Dr. Christopher J. Scolese, Director of the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), delivered the keynote address. Scolese provided an overview of the systems capabilities of the NRO and expanded the discussion to include the systemic lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic. Approaches for improved efficiency and innovation to meet tomorrow’s challenges was a key theme of the talk. In concluding his speech, Scolese said, “That’s our job as engineers: to make the world a better place. As the world evolves, we have to evolve with it.”
Monday’s program included the SE Fundamentals track organized by Long and supported by SERC researcher Dr. Nicole Hutchison. The program included:
- “Engineering the Value Chain System” by Jon Wade (former SERC CTO)
- “Look in All the Corners: Gathering, Tracking, and Verifying Requirements” by Courtney Wright
- “Systems Architecting: A Recipe for Success” by Tom Strandberg
- “MBSE – The Natural Evolution of Systems Engineering” by Dr. Jon Holt
- “If You Thought Systems Engineering Was Fun, Wait Until You Try System of Systems Engineering” by Duncan Kemp
- “You’re a Systems Engineer: Own It!” by SERC researcher Nicole Hutchison
- “What Force is More Powerful Than Profit? An Exploration of Why Leaders Still Fail to Recognize the Value of SE” by Randall Iliff.
In the Digital Engineering track, Tom McDermott, SERC CTO, presented with Joseph Bradley on “Defining a Measurement Framework for Digital Engineering.” This presentation incorporated findings from SERC research tasks on SE Modernization.
June 28
Tuesday’s program kicked off with keynote speaker Carla Bailo, Center for Automotive Research, who provided insight into the systemic challenges in the automotive sector, with an emphasis on the electric vehicle (EV) market, current policies that create targets for the percent of the automotive market that should include EVs, and their implications. Bailo shared her vision of the “connected, multi-modal system” required to enable a transportation environment that can effectively incorporate autonomous systems.
Following the keynote, SERC Sponsor Nadine Geier, Office of the Executive Director, Systems Engineering and Architecture – Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, participated in the INCOSE President’s panel “Realizing the Systems Engineering Vision 2035.”
In the afternoon, Tom McDermott, SERC CTO, participated in the Tech Ops (INCOSE Technical Operations) panel on “Transdisciplinary Perspectives on Systems Engineering in and for Contested Cyber Environments.” McDermott shared the results of multiple SERC research tasks on cyber resilience.
Finally, McDermott and Dr. Kelly Alexander led a follow-up meeting to their strategy session on SE Modernization. McDermott currently leads several SERC tasks around SE Modernization.
June 29
Laura Doughty, Director, Peakfield Consultancy Ltd, kicked off Wednesday’s program with a keynote entitled “The Power of Connection: The Power of Influencing.” Doughty talked about the non-technical skills critical to the success of systems engineers, particularly on tactical empathy. This is the ability to understand what matters to stakeholders – colleagues, sponsors, users, practitioners, and researchers – and how they like to work. SERC Researcher Hutchison remarked that Doughty’s talk was, “Exactly what systems engineers need to hear. SERC research has consistently shown that these ‘soft’ skills are critically important for the type of work we do. We are the integrators and Doughty’s comments on influencing as a quality and one-on-one conversations where we do more talking than listening are spot on and reflect a strength of systems engineers that we need to celebrate and continue to hone.”
After the plenary session, SERC researchers Stephanie Chiesi (SAIC and Stevens) and Paul Grogan (Stevens) presented their paper, “A Surrogate Model Approach for Studying Performance and Cycle Time in Complex System Development.”
During the afternoon session, researchers Hutchison (Stevens) and Paul Wach (Virginia Tech) presented the paper “Digital Transformation in Acquisition: Using Modeling and Simulation to Advance the State of Practice”. This paper shared the results of some of the SERC’s research with the Defense Acquisition University (DAU), particularly around STEDE: Simulation Training Environment for Digital Engineering. This task seeks to create a modeling and simulation environment to be used for digital engineering training within the DoD, including multiple realistic but fictitious defense systems on which students can practice the skills they are learning.
June 30
On the closing day of the IS, SERC Executive Director Dr. Dinesh Verma moderated the President’s invited panel “Research Enabling the Discipline of Systems Engineering”. Panelists included SERC CTO Tom McDermott (Stevens); Dr. Martin Torngren (KTH) and Dr. Jacob Wesselius (ESI (TNO)). This panel brought together three premier research centers focused on diverse aspects of systems research. Center leaders presented their research priorities via brief remarks and then it evolved into an engaged discussion with about 120 attendees, in person and online. Verma reflected, “The endearing patterns [from the panel] were architecting in a complex world; converging towards a sparse information model for systems engineering that is adopted globally; and a need to continue this line of discussion.” As part of the President’s invited content, the INCOSE President and President-Elect both supported the panel by attending and participating in its entirety.
The IS concluded with the closing plenary featuring keynote speaker Christopher Davey, Global R&A Senior Global Manager for Systems Engineering, System Safety, Modeling & Simulation at the Ford Motor Company, who presented on, “Ford’s Connected-Agile, Model Based Systems Engineering and Simulation Journey . . . So Far.” Davey discussed Ford’s approach to balance sufficient and efficient simulation, including how artificial intelligence (AI) can be employed usefully as well as its approaches for thread in concepts such as safety throughout all aspects of systems models.
In addition to the many papers and panels by SERC researchers, the SERC had a presence in the Exhibit Hall throughout the IS. Amy Stinchcombe, SERC Senior Communications Manager, met with many conference attendees throughout the event. This sort of engagement is critical to ensuring that the community is aware of the current research portfolio and resources available through the SERC.
INCOSE’s Systems Engineering Vision 2035
A Strategic Adaptation Plan for the Global Systems Engineering Community
As the world becomes more interconnected, changes to environmental, political and socioeconomic interdependencies are becoming increasingly complex. The International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) released its Systems Engineering Vision 2035 earlier this year, providing the systems view of current and potential global challenges. A premier professional society for systems engineering, INCOSE challenges the international systems community to anticipate future developments in systems engineering (SE), and has developed several forward-leaning vision documents, such as Vision 2035, that highlights the criticality of the digital transformation to the practice of systems engineering.
Assembled by a team of SE experts and practitioners, Vision 2035 offers a set of recommendations and road maps to help a broad base of stakeholders apply new and emerging practices to meet the challenges facing the SE community. This document also highlights the need for a set of theoretical foundations that are consistently taught and form the basis for application of systems engineering in all domains. Mr. Tom McDermott (SERC Chief Technology Officer) and Dr. Art Pyster (SERC Research Council member) participated on the team that supported the development of the Vision.
Vision 2035 will be an evolving document with an active implementation plan to future-proof the discipline across five areas: expanding the applications for SE; modernizing practices of SE in response to increasing complexity and uncertainty; modernizing SE tools and environments in response to the digital age; expanding research on the theoretical foundations of SE; and bringing SE competencies to all disciplines. Organized into four chapters, the Vision suggests a collaborative approach to advance the SE discipline by aligning initiatives across exploration, power and energy, healthcare, transportation, information, and telecommunications systems.
A few core tenets of Vision 2035 include:
- The global context for SE: The SE discipline must effectively respond to the transformative nature of engineered systems.
- Current state and application of SE practices and how these are adopted across industries, with a focus on critical competencies, practices, and foundations.
- A glimpse into what a systems engineer’s workday could look like in 2035: How will SE practices adapt to and be changed by new technologies? How will SE tools be augmented with data-driven algorithms in future years? What are the inevitable implications for education and lifelong learning?
- The critical need for collaboration among industry, government, academia, and non-profits as the ideal way to execute SE amid growing complexities and risks. Stakeholders for both traditional and non-traditional applications of SE must collaborate, creating opportunities to leverage investments and other resources across domains while retaining the unique needs of each.
Vision 2035 addresses the need for a research agenda and roadmap for SE. Mr. Tom McDermott, who is also the INCOSE Director for Strategic Integration, held a strategy session for INCOSE around the priorities for future SE research. As modeling and simulation, artificial intelligence (AI), nanotechnology, big data and analytics, and other technologies continue to advance, they will influence not only individual systems but also the SE discipline as a whole. Dozens of potential research questions were identified during the strategy session. A few consistent themes included:
- organizational adoption of SE
- improved integration of global concerns such as sustainability, justice, or collaboration into SE
- improved integration of data approaches into the discipline of SE (e.g., big data, AI, machine learning, etc.)
- advancing digital modeling and simulation from multiple and integrating these approaches into the discipline of SE
- methods for propagating critical systems skills and approaches into a variety of other disciplines
Each of these areas could generate dozens of research questions, each of which would help advance the discipline toward INCOSE’s Vision 2035. As the networked national resource for systems research, the SERC will continue to align its missions of community growth, competency development, and transformation of SE practice with the future vision of the entire SE community.
Ultimately, to grow the global SE community and develop systems approaches to problems, stakeholders must embrace the idea of leveraging new technologies in collaboration with allied fields to deliver value and respond to inevitable change.