Technical Report: Quantitative Risk – [Reports 1-3]

Report Number: Technical Report SERC-2013-TR-040-1

Report Name: Quantitative Risk – Phase 1

Publication Date: May 29, 2013

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Report Number: Technical Report SERC-2013-TR-040-2

Report Name: Quantitative Risk – Phase 1 (Revised)

Publication Date: September 3, 2013

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Report Number: Technical Report SERC-2013-TR-040-3

Report Name: Quantitative Risk – Phases 1 & 2

Publication Date: November 12, 2013

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Executive Summary: The Quantitative Technical Risk project is a multi-year effort to develop and transition effective methods, procedures and tools (MPTs) to improve the effectiveness of risk management in DoD system development programs. Phase 1 emphasized foundational research for a framework and approach to examine representations of the evolving system design to locate sources of complexity and quantify system complexity in order to provide insight into development and performance risk. Phase 2 emphasized developing a framework to expand the traditional DoD characterization of risk, and an approach that integrated risk management with the sequence and structure of program decisions at different stages of acquisition and program components.

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